The race to be the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee is growing increasingly competitive according to a new Des Moines Register/CNN poll that suggests former Vice President Joe Biden’s position as the race’s frontrunner is not as secure as some other polls have suggested.
The poll — conducted by Des Moines-based pollster Ann Selzer, who is widely respected as the pollster of record in in this key, early state — featured 600 likely Democratic caucus participants. It did find Biden remains in the lead, but a number of challengers are gaining traction.
According to the poll, support for Biden is at 24 percent; Sen. Bernie Sanders is at 16 percent, Sen. Elizabeth Warren is at 15 percent, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 14 percent, and Sen. Kamala Harris is at 7 percent. No other candidate has more than 2 percent of support. Current New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio had a particularly dismal showing: He received the support of exactly zero respondents — not just zero percent rounding downward, but he lacked the support of even a single respondent.
While Biden still tops the field, his campaign may have reason to be concerned. Back in December, the same poll found his support to be at 32 percent; then in March, it had slipped to 27 percent; and now, he is at 24 percent — still in first place, but no longer in a clearly dominant position.
It is important to keep in mind that in caucus states, voters’ second (or even third) choices can factor into the final result. If a candidate does not meet the minimum threshold of 15 percent support in a local precinct, each individual supporter has the opportunity to switch their support over to another candidate. With a field as large as the current one, it is very possible some caucus participants may well find themselves having to select another candidate to support. Because of this, the Iowa poll gave respondents the option to give three levels of possible support to each candidate: First choice, second choice, or “actively considering.”
When all three tiers of support (by those planning to vote in person) were added together, Biden again topped the list of candidates, with 61 percent possible support. However, Warren matched him exactly, with 61 percent possible support. Three other candidates manage to reach potential support of over 50 percent: Sanders at 56 percent, and Buttigieg and Harris, who each had 52 percent.
A major beneficiary in this poll is Elizabeth Warren: She was at just 8 percent in December, and then 9 percent in March. But she has now shot up to 15 percent support overall, in a dead heat with Sanders for the second-place position behind Biden.
“That’s a strong showing for Elizabeth Warren,” Selzer told the Register. “I think that all of the publicity lately and all of the polls lately are so Biden-heavy that for her to have any metric that shows her on par (with him) … it says to me there are people who are paying attention. Again, in a field this big, that’s step one. First, you have to get people to pay attention.”
Harris also appears to be a candidate with potential in Iowa, despite her current 5th place position. While the California senator was not the first choice of many voters, the same number of people listed her and Elizabeth Warren as their second choices (14 percent) and as candidates they were “actively considering” (32 percent). Harris does not quite have the same name recognition in the state as Biden, Warren, or Sanders, with 23 percent of respondents saying they were not sure what they thought of her. As she continues to campaign in Iowa, her standing could improve in a manner similar to Warren’s.
Bernie Sanders seems to be stuck in place. In the December poll, his support was at 19 percent, then it went up to 25 percent in March — but now he is back down into the teens, at 16 percent. These numbers mark a sharp decline from the 2016 election cycle, when he nearly matched Hillary Clinton in the Iowa caucuses, and they show that he has a lot of work to do in a divided field.
Beto O’Rourke, however, has not been stagnant; his support has dropped significantly. Back in December, the poll showed the former Texas congressman had 11 percent support among Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. This declined to only 5 percent support in the next poll in March. And this latest survey from the same pollster has his base shrinking to only 2 percent.
Pete Buttigieg has experienced the opposite trend. In March, he was at only 1 percent support. (He wasn’t included in the December poll.) He is now at 14 percent, very nearly matching Warren. While he seems to have won supporters, it could be argued, that he needs to remain on guard and work to ensure he does not suffer the same boom-and-bust cycle as O’Rourke.
The effect of the virtual caucus
In previous election cycles, caucus participation was limited to people who physically showed up at the local caucus sites. This campaign cycle, however, the party will allow for participation online or by phone in what is known as a “virtual caucus.” Those that participate in the virtual caucus will decide 10 percent of awarded delegates, with 90 percent of the delegates being decided by in-person attendees.
The poll found prospective virtual caucus voters currently have lower education levels than the prospective in-person voters: 49 percent of the possible virtual voters have four-year college degrees, compared to 63 percent among the planned in-person attendees. However, potential virtual caucus goers are also younger than in-person attendees, and may be enrolled in school. Their support for candidates also seemed softer than the prospective in-person voters.
For the moment, intended virtual voters are displaying different levels of support than the overall average: Joe Biden is at 33 percent with them, while Bernie Sanders is at just 10 percent, along with 10 percent for Kamala Harris, and 9 percent for Pete Buttigieg. Elizabeth Warren is the only top-tier candidate whose support is roughly even across both groups, with 14 percent among the likely virtual voters.
Internet Users Shared Their Head-Scratching Findings That Are More Like Riddles Until You Realize What They Actually Are
You can find nearly anything on the internet. And people who bump into something unusual turn to it to find answers. On Reddit, there’s a topic where users easily solve challenging riddles. They know everything about mysterious marine creatures, extraordinary tools, and exotic musical instruments.
Bright Side likes to learn more and more about this world, and internet users are ready to share their knowledge with us. Enjoy!
18. “Found these unusual scissors. They’re uncomfortable to hold, in either hand, 2 or 4 fingers.”
These are children’s training scissors for preschoolers. The extra holes are needed to let a grown-up co-scissor and help the child.
17. “What is the purpose of these mirrors? I came across them in Trosa, Sweden.”
In Sweden, these mirrors are called “Skvallerspegel” which can be translated to “gossip mirror.” In the Netherlands, they’re called Spionnetje, or “small spy.” These mirrors allow you to see what’s going on in the street from the comfort of your couch. They can be also found in Norway and Finland.
16. In Spain, why are there water bottles outside all the driveways and entrances?
Citizens use this approach to fight cats’ and dogs’ urges to mark their territory. Maybe animals don’t want to pee where they can drink water or the bottles serve as obstacles that confuse them.
15. “I found this in an old church.”
This is used to fill multiple communion cups with wine at the same time. The way this tool works is depicted in this picture created with the help of Photoshop.
14. “My girlfriend found this shell on the beach.”
13. “What is this tube full of balls in the wall?”
This is a tool that helps to detect termites at home. Its indicator lets you know if there are termites in your house.
12. An unusual tree
It’s the Agave Americana in blossom.
11. “What is this animal? This image was caught on a trail camera.”
This is a fisher, it’s a member of the mustelid family. Sometimes it’s also called “pekan.” Despite its name, the animal doesn’t always eat fish.
10. “I saw this in a shop near Manchester.”
It’s a tool that helps you get your boots on and off. The way it works is shown here. Inside the tool there are hooks that help you put your boots on.
9. “20 years of research and the internet is my last hope!”
These are the teeth of a Black Drum fish, they’re also called corbs.
8. “Found this at an antique festival near Atlanta. It’s 17” by 5.5″.”
It’s for rolling newspapers into a “log” for the fireplace.
7. I found some kind of jellyfish on the beach.
The Portuguese man o’ war (Physalia physalis) is a marine hydrozoan (invertebrate.) A big transparent bladder is filled with gas, which lets it float on the water’s surface. Its tentacles have stinging cells and the poison is dangerous for human beings.
6. “My friend found this thing in the water.”
This is an Orisha figure used in Santeria. One hand holds a snake, the other hand holds a mask. These figures are kept in water 100% of the time in accordance with the rules of the religion.
5. “Something’s falling out of the sky.”
No, it’s not a UFO. It could be a condensation trail produced by an aircraft. Contrails are composed primarily of water, in the form of ice crystals.
4. “Found this in my grandfather’s basement.”
This is called an ocarina, and it’s an ancient musical wind instrument. It’s used all over the world: in China, Latin America, Africa, and Eastern Europe. In Europe, this instrument is more like a toy for kids.
3. “Found this figurine in the forest near my house.”
It’s a broken part of a candle holder. Though some people use it as an ashtray.
2. “I found this on the Caribbean side of Eleuthera in the Bahamas at low tide.”
It’s a sponge. They don’t have nervous, digestive, or circulatory systems. They consume oxygen, filtering water through their bodies.
1. “What is this fish for?”
Iron deficiency is a serious problem in developing countries. These fish help people get enough iron if they boil these figurines in water.
Have you ever found anything unusual?
14 Ads From Marketing Gurus Who Are at the Top of Their Game
It’s great that commercials are no longer something unbearable or something that distracts you from watching your favorite movie. Modern marketers sometimes create such amazing masterpieces that they captivate your attention and you forget that this is just something that is supposed to sell you a product.
You probably already know that the Bright Side team loves advertisements that are made by talented people. So we would like to highlight these commercials that we think you might love.
1. The IKEA designers recreated the designs of the living rooms from The Simpsons, Friends, and Stranger Things
2. Adidas inspires you to climb all the mountains.
3. BMW: More power, less consumption.
4. The National Geographic Wild channel shows predators and their prey.
5. McDonald’s is sure that children love Happy Meals because they can be eaten with their hands.
6. This is LG’s way of telling you that delicate and non-delicate fabrics can be washed together.
7. Rota Uniprag pest control will make all the bad insects leave your house.
8. This bookstore knows that some books trap you from the very first pages.
9. Burger King, for those who love grill
10. Stabilo: highlighting the most important things
11. There is no way you can miss this STIHL blower magazine ad.
12. Nivea’s way of letting you know they can help you get rid of cellulite
13. Wilkinson Sword shows us how individuality is created.
14. PlayStation is the best way to train your fingers.
Which of these commercials do you think deserves a round of applause? And we would also like to know if you have ever bought things because of good commercials or do you always try to shut down your emotions while shopping?
Preview photo credit Sony
Big Little Lies season 2, episode 2: “Tell-Tale Hearts” recap
If Big Little Lies’ second-season premiere was the calm before a storm of consequences, then the second episode, “Tell-Tale Hearts,” is a whole new maelstrom of melodrama.
This episode sees our five scheming socialites falling deeper into the web of secrets and lies that have surrounded them, as family tensions, spousal betrayals, and devastating reveals about sexual assault and domestic violence all churn to the surface. It probably shouldn’t be as fun to watch as it is, but Big Little Lies has always been pretty gleeful about its sordid affairs.
Strap in, because a lot happens in this episode.
Celeste and Bonnie are both trapped in isolating guilt spirals
“Tell-Tale Hearts” gives everyone a squalid tale to tell, and the result is that their stories spill forth almost immediately. This is partly because, as the bard once said, “Children will listen,” and all the kids of Big Little Lies have not only been listening to their parents, but also talking among themselves. The repercussions are significant, and I’m excited to watch how the sons and daughters of the group, who are now dubbed “the Monterey Five,” deal with the sins of their parents.
Celeste (Nicole Kidman) is still so plagued with guilt and tortured memories of her late husband, Perry, that she’s having trouble sleeping. But while on Ambien, she sleep-drives and crashes her car in the middle of nowhere, leaving her searching for a way to explain her behavior to Perry’s already suspicious and ever-watchful mother, Mary Louise (Meryl Streep).
While giving Celeste a lift home, Madeline (Reese Witherspoon) spots Bonnie (Zoe Kravitz) walking aimlessly along the deserted highway. Bonnie’s own spiraling guilt over Perry’s death at the end of season one has left her increasingly listless and disconnected from her friends and family. While Bonnie resists Madeline’s concerned scrutiny, Celeste seems to know exactly how Bonnie feels. “That woman’s not well,” Madeline tells Celeste, ignoring the obviously unwell woman right next to her.
In another parallel with her kindred spirit Celeste, Bonnie’s emotional detachment has caused her husband, Madeline’s ex Nathan, to call in Bonnie’s mom, Elizabeth ( Crystal Fox), to come stay with them, without telling Bonnie in advance. Her mother’s arrival — and her practice of witchcraft, which leads her to do things like sneak around at night, leaving animal bones in Bonnie’s room — only escalate Bonnie’s unease and exacerbate the tensions between Bonnie and Nathan. But Elizabeth does identify the basic thing that’s wrong with her daughter, the thing no one else seems willing to say outright: She saw Perry Wright die (at the end of season one), and she’s traumatized.
Bonnie’s mom seems to be the only person willing to fully and openly discuss what’s going on under their noses. That is, apart from the kids. And when the kids start talking, the dominoes start to fall.
The spilling of one closely-held secret causes a cascade of new problems
When she’s back home, Celeste dodges Mary Louise’s questions, only to have to break up an increasingly familiar bout of violence erupting between her sons, twins Josh and Max. This time, Max hits and swears at Celeste, who reacts by pushing him away and accidentally knocking him to the ground, screaming that she won’t let Max become like his late dad. Tick another box in the obvious mental checklist — “Signs your daughter-in-law killed your son” — that Mary Louise is keeping. (Oh, and she’s making plans to rent an apartment nearby, so that she can continue to keep an eye on Celeste.)
Dire as this situation seems, it’s just the beginning of new troubles for Celeste. Josh and Max have been picking up gossip from Madeline’s younger daughter, Chloe. Thanks to Madeline’s glib discussion of her friend circle and its fraught dynamics, Chloe’s sussed out that the twins’ late dad, Perry, is also the father of another boy at their school — Ziggy, the daughter of the fourth member of the Monterey Five, Jane (Shailene Woodley). Now she’s shared the big secret with the twins and Ziggy, unbeknownst to their parents. Josh and Max have, in turn, told their grandmother about their other brother.
The repercussions of this revelation are immediately sobering. Mary Louise is understandably confused about why Celeste didn’t tell her that she has another grandchild. This means that Celeste has to tell her the truth — that Ziggy is a product of a sexual assault. Jane is also thoroughly shaken by the news that Chloe, Josh, and Max are all privy to the secret of her son’s paternity — one she had wanted to tell Ziggy herself first. She makes the difficult choice to be honest with him about how he was conceived.
Meanwhile, Madeline, in the middle of trying to scold Chloe for spreading private secrets among her classmates, runs into trouble with her own husband, Ed (Adam Scott), who’s weirdly shocked and angry that Madeline didn’t tell him about her friends’ big secret. (Ed is presumably meant to seem hurt by his wife shutting him out of her life, but he mostly just ends up looking like a giant gossip, because, as Madeline points out, he’s asking her to fill him in on her friend’s sexual assault. Not cool, Ed!) This uncomfortable moment of conflict between Madeline and Ed is rapidly overshadowed by a revelation from the elder of Madeline’s daughters: While high school senior Abigail continues her ongoing argument with her mom about why she doesn’t want to go to college, she lets slip that Madeline had a short-lived affair last year with the local theatre director … and Ed overhears her. After processing this second, more legitimate bombshell, he tells Madeline their relationship is over.
And the hits just keep coming: When Celeste tries to talk to Mary Louise about Perry’s sexual assault of Jane, Mary Louise flatly rejects the idea that her son could be capable of committing rape and labels Jane a liar. She also implies that Celeste is disloyal for believing Jane, and then goes even further by disbelieving Celeste herself when Celeste tells her that Perry has a history of domestic violence. Insisting on branding Jane’s rape an “affair,” she coaxes the confession out of Celeste that she only learned of the assault the night of Perry’s death.
This is clearly a smoking gun to Mary Louise in terms of motive. Armed with all this new circumstantial evidence and an incendiary timeline, she tells Celeste she’s going to the police to report all the secrets that Celeste has been keeping: the existence of Perry’s other son, their combative history, and Celeste’s secret plans to leave him once and for all — arrangements Celeste was making last season on the eve of Perry’s death.
This episode asks whether the family that shares its secrets can survive them
The spilling of all these secrets all tie into the episode’s overarching theme — the concept of family and what the hell that even means, anyway. “Tell-Tale Hearts” suggests that there’s ultimately not much difference between a dysfunctional family that shares its secrets and a dysfunctional family that doesn’t. In an early scene, Celeste tries to tell her sons that they can talk to her about their dad, only to have them accurately inform her that she’d rather avoid the whole subject. “I shouldn’t do that,” she admits. “Families should be open with one another.”
“I don’t think we’re that kind of family,” her son Max replies shrewdly.
He’s echoed later on by Ed, who coldly challenges Madeline’s idea that there is an “us” during their breakup. “What does that even mean?” he asks. “It can’t mean honesty, truth, or trust.”
But if this episode makes a pretty strong case that the only way to keep your household happy is to never open your mouth, it also reminds us that, even then, the truth will come out. Which brings us to the fifth and final member of the Monterey Five. Just as she’s on the cusp of national prominence, Renata (Laura Dern) finds out that her useless husband has been committing fraud — when the feds show up to arrest him. Not only that, but he’s been squandering her fortune as well as his.
Renata reacts to his confession by flying into a hilarious rage and yelling, “I will not not be rich!” This is highly relatable, and also amazing — but she still winds up bailing him out and giving him a lift home from jail, which, let’s face it, is pretty much as great a show of loyalty as this show can deliver.
So far this season, Renata has mostly popped into the unfolding drama of her friends’ lives to be busy and important, which is typical Renata. I’m intrigued to see how the show will weave her storyline back into the larger narrative, but even if it doesn’t, and Laura Dern’s job this season is to drop in and have empowered tantrums every now and then, Big Little Lies will be five-star viewing. The crime melodrama is one thing, but if you can’t have a self-aware sophisticate screaming about her right to a slice of the patriarchy, what’s the point?
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