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Democratic primary 2020: Joe Biden leads polls, but what does that mean? | Viral Buzz News
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Democratic primary 2020: Joe Biden leads polls, but what does that mean?



In poll after poll of the 2020 Democratic primary so far, former Vice President Joe Biden keeps on leading.

But the big question is whether that lead will prove durable once the campaign gets serious — or whether it will evaporate, as several past national frontrunners’ early leads have once exposed to reality.

Here’s what the polls currently show:

  • Biden has led every single national poll of the 2020 Democratic primary tracked by RealClearPolitics.
  • His support percentage is usually in the high 20s or low 30s in the crowded field.
  • In RCP’s average of recent national polls, Biden leads by 7 points. In an average of all national 2020 polls the site tracks, he leads by 11.
  • Biden also led in all three polls of Iowa tracked by RCP.
  • Bernie Sanders has led in more New Hampshire polls, but Biden tends to come in second and is ahead in RCP’s average there.
  • Biden was up by 16 in the only South Carolina poll tracked by RCP so far.

But there are, of course, some very important caveats.

First, a recent piece by Politico’s Steven Shepard argued that Biden’s poll lead was in fact “shaky.” Shepard pointed out that in the polls referenced above, respondents generally aren’t offered “undecided” as an explicit option. In polls that do offer that option, Biden’s share of the vote drops dramatically — to 12 percent in a poll by Bold Blue, and 9 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll. He’s still in first place among the actual candidates in both, but this may suggest that Biden’s support is shallow.

Second, and more broadly, history shows that a national presidential primary poll lead at this point is very far from a sure thing. You can follow the Washington Post’s @LedPast on Twitter for a sense of that — here, for instance, is who was ahead at a similar point in every recent cycle.

In only two of those five races did the poll leader at this point go on to win the nomination — Mitt Romney for 2012 Republicans and Hillary Clinton for 2016 Democrats. Even Clinton’s massive poll lead plummeted (she ended up winning the popular vote over Sanders by about 12 percent).

In the other three races, the poll leader around this point ended up losing.

  • Barack Obama was in second place behind Clinton for all of 2007 — usually by double digits — but his Iowa win boosted his fortunes.
  • John McCain began 2007 in second place behind Rudy Giuliani in national polls, eventually dropping to third and even fourth. But his eventual win in New Hampshire propelled him over Giuliani and Romney.
  • National polls of Republicans in early 2015 bore almost no resemblance to the actual outcome. For instance, the top six Republicans in RCP’s average in early June 2015 — Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Ben Cason, Mike Huckabee, and Rand Paul — combined to win just one state. Trump exploded into the lead in national polls in the summer of 2015, and mostly held onto it after that. Ted Cruz emerged as his biggest rival in December.

The size of Biden’s current poll lead certainly isn’t as overwhelming as Clinton’s was in 2015. But it’s also larger and more consistent than any Republican candidate had managed that year until Trump came along. And it’s about the same as Romney’s in early 2011 — when he went on to win the GOP nomination.

Still, there are also reasons to suspect Biden’s current lead is a lot like Giuliani’s in 2007 or Jeb Bush’s in early 2015 — that it’s illusory, based on a vague general positive impression that won’t survive contact with an actual campaign. Biden is expected to announce whether he will run in the coming weeks.

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16 Striking Photos That Can Touch Your Heart




Photos keep our memories safe and every time we look at them we can immerse ourselves in the moments that have been captured in them. They can also help us to understand what’s really important in this world. And it doesn’t matter whether these photos are from your personal album or belong to somebody else. Their messages, feelings, and emotions can be perceived in one glance.

Here at Bright Side, we believe that the following photos will really touch your heart.

This couple has battled leukemia for 15 years since they were children. Now they’re husband and wife.

This fireman gave a cat that got hurt in a fire mouth-to-mouth resuscitation and saved it.

“My dad, who has dementia, trying to remember my name”

His owner passed away but the dog continues to sit near his bed and wait.

This is what depression looks like over 24 hours.

Have you ever seen a blind dog enjoying the sounds of a lake?

An Iranian girl cheers for her favorite football team from behind the fence since Iranian women aren’t allowed into stadiums.

“My mom painted dementia.”

When all you have is memories:

The 3 social classes in The Philippines in one photo

“My buddy, a glass blowing artist, used my dad’s ashes to make a keepsake marble I can take with me anywhere.”

“She gave me the best 11 years of her life and I can only hope that I was able to do the same thing for her.”

“A year ago, my little sister left this world. This weekend her heart recipient met my mom and shared her heart beat.”

“The moment your dog comes out of the fire you thought he died in”

“3 months ago we were told our newborn was blind. 2 weeks ago we found out the doctors were wrong. Today, she got her glasses.”

“I’m just so proud of you!”

Today my daughter graduated from pre-K. After the ceremony, my son walked up to her and gave her a hug. “I’m just so proud of you,” he said. Then, of course, my daughter started crying. As we wiped away our tears, my husband asked her, “Pumpkin, why are you crying?” She responded, “I’m just so happy.”

Each photo has its own story. Which of them touched you the most?

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Komünist Başkan, Aldığı Kararla Sosyal Medyada Trend Topic Oldu




Mehmet Fatih Maçoğlu’nun belediye başkanı olduğu Tunceli Belediyesi Meclisi, ‘Tunceli’ yazan belediye tabelasının ‘Dersim’ olarak değiştirilmesine karar verdi. Bu karar sonrası Maçoğlu, sosyal medyada Trend Topic oldu.

Tunceli Belediye Başkanı TKP’li Fatih Mehmet Maçoğlu başkanlığında belediye meclis üyeleri toplantısında alınan kararla Tunceli Belediyesi tabelasının ‘Dersim Belediyesi’ olarak değiştirilmesi kararı alındı. Karar tartışma yaratırken ‘DersimdeğilTunceli’ etiketi sosyal medyada Trend Topic oldu.


Belediyeden yapılan açıklamada Dersim ibaresiyle birlikte Zazaca ve Türkçe beleriye hizmetleri verileceği duyuruldu. Açıklamada şöyle denildi: “Kentimizin kültürü, tarihi ve inanç biçimini yaşatmak adına belediyemiz hizmet binasında bulunan tabelada yazılı ‘Tunceli’ ibaresinin değiştirilerek yerine ‘Dersim’ ibaresinin yazılması oy çokluğuyla kabul edildi. Haber

View at DailyMotion

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15 Random People Who Look So Much Like Celebrities, You May Want to Take a Photo With Them




It’s not an easy goal to meet a real celebrity in our everyday life. Sometimes they are too busy with their activities or simply prefer to avoid public places. But when you see one right in front of you, don’t be too quick to jump over the moon and ask for a photo. Try to check their IDs first, because we are ready to show you that there are too many ordinary people who look just like stars and who probably wouldn’t miss a chance to pose and giggle afterward.

We at Bright Side compared photos of celebrities to their clones to demonstrate that this isn’t a joke. IDs first, photos after.

15. Kylie Jenner and Kristen Hancher, but which is which?

14. “My dad actually does Jack Nicholson lookalike work in Hollywood as a hobby.”

13. Breaking news! It seems Kim Kardashian has cloned herself.

12. “This fella lives in my house. I think James Franco and he follow each other on Instagram.”

11. “My sister always gets asked if she’s Julia Stiles.”

10. Nope, those aren’t just 2 pictures of Steve Buscemi!

9. Here’s chance for those who are upset that Michael Fassbender is married.

8. We’re just interested to see if Meghan Trainor’s double has the same talents.

7. We know this is pretty unexpected for Taylor Lautner, but we can’t unsee it.

6. This girl claims that she gets compared to Katy Perry daily.

5. When Chuck Norris is on vacation.

4. “Never mind, I’ll find someone like Adele.”

3. If Cobie Smulders doesn’t want to shoot How I Met Your Mother 10, there’s a perfect replacement out there.

2. Wait, so you’re saying that isn’t Zooey Deschanel on the right?

1. Even Zach Galifianakis and Jonah Hill can see this resemblance.

Do you have any friends who look exactly like movie stars? Show us their photos!

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